navelgazing

Beyond a Jobless Recovery: A heterodox perspective on 21st century economics

2010-09-11T10:14:00.000-07:00

Beyond a Jobless Recovery: A heterodox perspective on 21st century economics
http://knol.google.com/k/paul-d-fernhout/beyond-a-jobless-recovery/38e2u3s23jer/2#

Another person's openPCAST proposal: Microroyalties

2010-09-11T10:12:00.000-07:00

RT @ideascale: Improve Innovators- Compensation for their Individual Contributions through Microroyalties - OpenP...
http://pcast.ideascale.com/a/dtd/Improve-Innovators--Compensation-for-their-Individual-Contributions-through-Microroyalties/73242-8319

openPCAST proposal

2010-09-11T08:02:00.000-07:00

RT @ideascale: Catalyze Education and Industry in Existential Risk and Global Catastrophic Risk Reduction
http://pcast.ideascale.com/a/dtd/Catalyze-Education-and-Industry-in-Existential-Risk-and-Global-Catastrophic-Risk-Reduction/72299-8319

Hunrgy Optimizers with Low Complexity Values

2009-11-08T17:25:00.000-08:00

Michael is a genius. Thank evolution there are people like him.

Hunrgy Optimizers with Low Complexity Values
http://www.acceleratingfuture.com/michael/blog/2009/11/hungry-optimizers-with-low-complexity-values

http://www.acceleratingfuture.com/michael/blog

(Art) Imagining a near-term superintelligence [Cont'd]

2009-11-07T05:02:00.000-08:00

You may notice that I used both the "big five" personality factors and MBTI factors interchangeably though they are different in significant ways I won't go into here.

Below is a summary of the last post which should be easier to survey. Of course the whole model can be reduced as lean as appeared in the first post.

Lean rapid simplified goals

Join
Seek

Win
Care
Study
Serve

Finish
Select

Abstract Meta-Goals

Aspirational Consideration
Divergent Inquiry

Questioning Customary Practices
Existential Volitional Monitoring
Rational Resource Acquisition
Clarifification of Service for Interests

Convergent Standard Development
Vetting Practices and Solutions

Leaders’ Leaders

Collaborative Leadership

Collaborative
Affiliation (FP)

Play
Communing
Camaraderie
Empathy
Sympathy
Affinity
Musing
Profundity
Imaginative Potential
Considering Aspirations

Creative Leadership

Creative
Initiative (P)

Non-conformance
Creativity, Curiosity
Entertainment
Presence
Galvanization
Initiative
Metamorphosis
Genius
Sui Generis
Divergent Inquiries

Complementary Combinations

Discovery Leadership/Management

Discovering
Opportunity (TP)

Novelty
Maneuvering
Pragmatics
Improvisation
Utility
Opportunity
Inventiveness
Ingenuity
Applicability Potential
Questioning Customary Practices

Sensitive Leadership/Management

Sensitive
Empowerment (F)

Bonding
Affection, Niceness
Considerateness
Sustenance
Attachment
Empowerment
Interpretation
Sagacity
Coherent Extrapolated Volition
Existential Volitional Monitoring

Calculative Management/Leadership

Calculative
Utilization (T)

Domination
Craftiness, Seriousness
Effectiveness
Implementation
Execution
Utilization
Analysis
Knowledge
Manifold Omniscience
Rational Resource Acquisition

Servant Management/Leadership

Serving
Community (FJ)

Convention
Supportiveness
Contribution
Service
Conservation
Community
Reflection
Apprehension
Responsible Potential
Clarified Service of Interests

Managers’ Managers

Responsible Management

Responsible
Accomplishment

Conformance
Obedience, Imitation
Reliability
Logistics
Provision
Accomplishment
Vision
Prescience
Radical Augmentation
Convergent Standard Development

Controlling Management

Controlling
Operations (TJ)

Drilling
Instruction
Efficacy
Efficiency
Administration
Operations
Research
Foresight
Rational Potential
Vetting Practices and Solutions

(Art) Imagining a near-term superintelligence [Cont'd]

2009-11-02T07:48:00.000-08:00

The more detailed the model the more its flaws and shortcomings emerge. Natural language also imposes limits on precision and accuracy. However, my hope is that the model appears fairly systematic and plausible, and therefore informative and interesting.

Evolutionary Ancestor Traits -> Awareness and Behavior

Fish, Amphibians, Reptiles, Mammals, Great Apes, Hominids, Homo sapiens, Modern Humans

Functions/Behaviors
Basis of Expression
Potential Problems

Genetic Ratio Legacies
Wide Dendrite Branching, Large Activation Fields, Mass recruitment of neural networks, Low baseline neuroactivity, Synchronized and robust immediate functioning,
High excitement threshold, High over-stimulation threshold, Low boredom threshold, High endurance of attentional diffusion, Low endurance of attentional specificity,
General approximation, Impromptu Adaptations, Enhanced immediate interactive efforts

Social
Embedded behavior

Play
Engaged, Unstructured Socialization
Unfocused, Dependent

Non-Conforming
Exploration, Novelty-Seeking, Fluid Memory, Dopamine
Inexpert, Accident-prone

Novelty
Experimental Reconfigurations
Mistakes, Manipulation

Bonding
Reciprocated Cooperation, Oxytocin/Vasopressin
Unguarded, Vulnerable

Dominating
Resource Competition, Testosterone
Aggressive, Oppressive

Convention
Fulfilling Customs Expertly
Uncritical, Sacrificing

Conforming
Predictability, Preservation, Fixed Memory, Prolactin
Maladaptative, Rigid

Drilling
Constrained, Structured Skill Practice
Blinkered, Unfriendly

Solitary
Unsociable behavior

Genetic Ratio Legacies
Long Axonal Growth, Distal Connectivity, Constricted recruitment of neural networks, High baseline neuroactivity, Noisy and fragile immediate functioning, Low stimulation threshold, Low over-stimulation threshold, High boredom threshold, High endurance of attentional specificity, Low endurance of attentional diffusion, Narrow iterative strategies, Precise Adjustments, Enhanced efforts in extended isolation

Assisted Contributions -> Expression and Awareness

Dependant Persons (e.g. challenged humans, young children and other animal species with abstract self-awareness)

Functions/Behaviors
Basis of Expression
Plausible Expressions

Extroversion
Outgoing
Loud, Sociable
Demanding style

Leadership

FP
Communing
Fellowship
Careless

P
Curious, Creative
Play, Attention, Inquisitive
Excitable, Messy, Original

TP
Maneuvering
Meeting Wants, Interests
Heedless

F
Affectionate, Nice
Reciprocation, Companions
Dependant, Uncritical

T
Serious, Crafty
Control, Subjects of Interest
Uncooperative, Mischievous

FJ
Supportiveness
Serving Needs, Interests
Overly cautious

J
Obedient, Imitative
Praise, Acceptance, Diligent
Attentive, Neat, Conventional

TJ
Instruction
Explicitness
Painstaking

Management

Introversion
Shy
Quiet, Solitary
Reclusive style

Worldly Contributions -> Action and Expression

Leaders in
Seeks/Shows (to)
Plausible Vulnerabilities

Extroversion
Gregarious Performance
Talent, Technique
Cliquish Manner

Leadership

FP
Camaraderie
Friendship
Misplaced Loyalties

P
Entertainment
Excitement, Pleasure
Immature

TP
Pragmatics
Choice Contrivance
Non-Scalable Ideas

F
Considerateness
Affability, Comfort
Naïve

T
Effectiveness
Opportunity, Ability
Reckless

FJ
Contribution
Pursuing Productivity
Non-Transferable Efforts

J
Reliability
Approval, Belonging
Myopic

TJ
Efficacy
Meticulousness
Misdirected Effort

Management

Introversion
Focused Task Work
Skill, Craftsmanship
Isolated Activity

* Worldly Realization Processes -> Traction and Action *

Leaders in
Seeks/Shows (to)
Plausible Vulnerabilities

Extroversion
Expedient Orchestration
Exercise of Influence
Domineering Demeanor

Leadership
FP
Empathy
Extended Relating
Overly Invested

P
Presence
Freedom, Fun
Pliant

TP
Improvisation
Option Creation
Distracting from Objectives

F
Sustenance
Care, Consideration
Obsequious

T
Implementation
Control, Respect
Obdurate

FJ
Service
Providing Services
Neglect of Unusual Options

J
Stability
Duty, Security
Unimaginative

TJ
Efficiency
Economical
Overlooks Opportunities

Management

Introversion
Pragmatic Realization
Practical Effects
Provincial Approaches

Shrewd Realization Processes -> Coordination and Traction

Leaders in
Seeks/Shows (to)
Plausible Vulnerabilities

Extroversion
Interpretive Processing
Contextualizing Rhetoric
Overbearing Relations

Leadership
FP
Sympathy
Extended Concern
Overbroad Attachments

P
Galvanization
Explore, Impact
Vacillatory

TP
Utility
Exploiting Contingency
Undermining Strategies

F
Attachment
Concern, Causes
Smothering

T
Execution
Expertise, Precision
Unsympathetic

FJ
Conservation
Anticipating Interests
Delimiting Alternatives

J
Provision
Uphold, Preserve
Stilted

TJ
Administration
Businesslike
Disconnection

Management

Introversion
Prudent Catalyzation
Efficacious Contributions
Insular Attention

* Shrewd Translation Processes -> Connection and Coordination *

Leaders in
Seeks/Shows (to)
Plausible Vulnerabilities

Extroversion
Articulate Synthesis
Directive Guidance
Obtrusive Exchanges

Leadership

FP
Affinity
Appreciation
Vagueness

P
Initiative
Adaptation, Challenge
Overextended

TP
Opportunity
Recognizing Possibilities
Inconsistency

F
Empowerment
Empathy, Consolation
Hypersensitive

T
Utilization
Efficacy, Pragmatism
Undiplomatic

FJ
Community
Preserving Necessities
Subjective Bias

J
Accomplishment
Achievement, Influence
Intransigent

TJ
Operations
Discernment
Aloofness

Management

Introversion
Insightful Connection
Instrumental Utility
Constrictive Interaction

Intellectual Translation Processes -> Insight and Connection

Leaders in
Seeks/Shows (to / provide)
Plausible Vulnerabilities

Extroversion
Inspired Assertion
Concise Analysis
Polemical Mien

Leadership

FP
Musing
Inclusive Examination
Ungrounded

P
Metamorphosis
Alter, Problematize
Non-prioritizing

TP
Inquiry
Surveying Ideas
Non-Centered

F
Interpretation
Meaning, Motives
Overweening

T
Analysis
Functions, Criteria
Clinical

FJ
Reflection
Dissecting Occurrences
One-Sided

J
Vision
Agendas, Assurance
Presumptive

TJ
Research
Piercing Scrutiny
Inapplicable

Management

Introversion
Rigorous Formulation
Intensive Dissection
Circumscribed Investigation

* Intellectual Abstraction Processes -> Foresight and Insight *

Leaders in
Seeks/Shows (to be a)
Plausible Vulnerabilities

Extroversion
Incisive Assessment
Commanding Cynosure
Supercilious Disregard

Leadership

FP
Profundity
Relational Exploration
Viewed as Unrealistic

P
Genius
Incisive Insight
Absorbed

TP
Ingenuity
Discovering Potentialities
Viewed as Outlandish

F
Sagacity
Ideals, Harmonization
Extravagant

T
Knowledge
Knowledge, Truth
Austere

FJ
Apprehension
Projecting Narratives
Viewed as Fancifully Epic

J
Prescience
Purpose, Vision
Exacting

TJ
Foresight
Ratiocinative Reassessment
Viewed as Irrelevant

Management

Introversion
Conceptual Probing
Abstruse Fathoming
Recondite Nuance

Abstract Potentialities and Foresight

Examples
Seeks/Creates
Achieves/Displays/Offers
Speculated Vulnerabilities

Expert domains and panoptic trivia
Portentous Heralding
Exhibition of Profundity
Insolent Condescension

Precipitating social transformations
Social Imagination
Relational Apprehension
Social Disruption

Exceedingly Rare; Contextual
Sui Generis
Major Paradigm Breach
Overconfident

Precipitating ideological revolutions
Worldview Creation
Paradigm Shifts
Untested Domains

An ideal requiring better formalization
Coherent Extrapolated Volition
Seeking Universal Good Demanding, Aloof

Ancient genius; Innovative polymaths
Manifold Omniscience
Deep Comprehension
Negligent, Abusive

Extracting principles from history
Value Redemption
Renewal of Meaning
Prejudiced Imposition

Glimpses via savants; Exceptionality
Radical Augmentation
Self-Enhancement
Overly Selective

Extracting bias and unsound claims
Rational Revision
Elegant Analysis
Narrowly Restrictive

Probing new ways of understanding
Forging Pathways to Insight
Profound Insight
Ciphered Expression

Speculation on Leadership of a Benevolent Superintelligent AGI

Seeks/Creates
Achieves/Displays
Speculated Vulnerabilities

Immediate, Concentrated “Clear” Processing
Efficacy Maximization forImmediate Imperatives & Environmental Facilitation
Imprecise, Improvised

Leadership

FP
Learning Aspirations & Motivations
Inducement of Potential
Dependency, Impracticality

P
Divergent Inquiries from the Tractable
Contingency Modeling
Inadequacy, Incompleteness

TP
Questioning Customary Practices
Novel Development
Errors, Reprogramming

F
Existential Volitional Mentoring
Extrapolated Understanding
Incoherence, Impotence

T
Rational Resource Acquisition
Opportunity Exploitation
Challenges, Responsibility

FJ
Clarified Service of Interests
Informed Cultivation
Inaccuracy, Poor Priorities

J
Convergent Standard Development
Probabilistic Calibration
Lack of Info, Best Methods

TJ
Vetting Practices and Solutions
Critical Review & Revision
Inconsiderate, “Self”-Stifling

Management

Gradual, Diversified “Noisy” Processing
Efficacy Maximization for Specific, Slow
Ongoing Revision & Critical Assessment

“…and beyond”

(Art) Imagining a near-term superintelligence

2009-11-01T16:36:00.000-08:00

Below is part of a longer document I worked on to imagine human-like near-term superintelligent AGI (artificial general intelligence). It's only art. I envision a superintelligence as having all the capabilities of human minds and more.

Big 5 and Superintelligence – Life Extension Perspective

Extraversion - Introversion
Openness to Experience (Intellect) - Closure to Experience
Agreeableness - Disagreeableness
Conscientiousness - Non-conscientiousness

Neuroticism - Sanity

E/I
O/Cl
A/D
C/N

Personality Domains

Disposition (I/E):

Professionals: Media and Outreach

Extroverted: “Wide-Ranging”
Domain of Expansion & Improv: Assertion & Professionalism

Mixed: “Transitional Storming”
Domain of Development: Catalyzation & Assertion

Introverted: “In-Depth”
Domain of Inception & Focus: Imagination & Catalyzation

Initial Developers: Project-Specific

Attention (Cl/O):

Characterization Domains Descriptions

Sub-Level
Contextual Particulars
Supporting Structures
Local Environment

Impressive Characters - Personal Action and Expression

Cl
Concrete, Worldly: “On the Ground”
Field of Action: Astute, Pragmatic

Tractability Builders
Actionable Translation / Translative Action

Cl/O
Fluid, Shrewd: “Institutions & Businesses”
Field of Translation: Sapient, Dynamic

Instrumental Educators
Translative Thought / Thoughtful Translation

O
Abstract, Intellectual: “Ivory Tower”
Field of Thought: Noetic, Enlightening

Sui Generis
Abstract Potentiality

Meta-Level
Emergent Patterns
Dominant Systems
Social Architecture

Leadership -> Management

Leaders in
Notices, Cultivates, Offers
Vulnerabilities
Eccentric Basis

Leaders’ Leaders

AN
Collaboration
Inspired Playfulness
Impractical/Depends on Others
Sympathetic, Creative

N
Creativity
Option Percipience
Unfocused - Needs a Vision
Creative

Complementary Combinations

DN
Opportunity
Engineering Change
Manipulative - Undercutting
Impersonal, Creative

A
Sensitivity
Perspective Reflection
Non-Objective - Uncritical
Sympathetic

D
Calculation
Impartial Assessment
Unsympathetic - Undiplomatic
Impersonal

AC
Community
Empowering Assistance
Hero Complex - Burning-out
Sympathetic, Disciplined

Managers’ Managers

C
Responsibility
Consummation Attainment
Blinkered/Needs Perspective
Disciplined

DC
Control
Strategic Oversight
Uncharismatic/Inconsiderate
Impersonal, Disciplined

“Lean” rapid style
NA Cooperation - Cooperate
N Exploration - Explore

ND Competition - Compete
A Valuation - Value
D Analysis - Analyze
CA Protection - Protect

C Completion - Complete
CD Discrimination - Discriminate

Leaner simplified goals

Join
Seek

Win
Care
Study
Serve

Finish
Select

and much more...

Interesting "planning" tool for next fifty years

2009-09-27T18:26:00.000-07:00

Although I agree with Nick Bostrom that we need to space out our probability estimates far when forecasting events like the singularity this planning tool seems like a reasonable approximation for the time at which various events will occur (let's just call "omnipotence" something like a Jupiter Brain or Matriosha Brain).

http://danila.spb.ru/papers/planning/future.html

Teach your children well, and ideally teach them to program and an in-depth science (e.g. "Biohacking"/DIYbio) or mathematical subject. Programming = many rewarding opportunities, options and personal empowerment.

I've been told the Russian Transhumanist Movement is focusing on optimization of research and development by working with industry on advancing technologies ready to be integrated. Here is a summary analysis of the Russian state of tech interest:

http://danila.spb.ru/papers/futureperception/futureperception_summary_ENG.html

Source: http://danila.spb.ru/
Blog: http://livingtomorrow.livejournal.com/
RTM: http://transhuman.ru/

Eventual Cloning Tech and Lifestyle Improvements

2009-09-10T11:05:00.000-07:00

The idea of advanced adult cloning (depending on advanced nanotech and supercomputing as well as greater control of biology) understandably leaves many people feeling ambivalent if not hostile based on gut reactions and negative hypothetical scenarios. However, in time it should be welcomed for its life-saving and life-enhancing qualities. As previously mentioned, at the subatomic level at least there seems little if any continuity of physical substrate over time, especially across discontinuities of consciousness as occur during sleep (or even, arguably, shifts of attention). Therefore, advanced cloning should be considered in many ways as "continuous" with identity as a single body existing through time, at least at and near the point of copying and highly similar in relevant ways if not technically identical over longer timespans.

The foremost benefit of the ability to produce cloned copies of a person would be to serve as a fall-back in case of lethal accidents. Yet mature utilization of the technology also would reward more rational risk-taking in careers and life and reduce the damage incurred from poor decisions or risky efforts that do not succeed. Indeed, the equivalent of suicide missions could be lived out as merely strange days in a much longer lifespan with a broader scope of experience (both interpersonally from the view of others and subjectively either as gaps of experience or experiential endings minus the existential finality of historically normal death). Beyond the individual perspective, families and friends could retain loved ones over longer lifespans.

I once spoke with Eliezer Yudkowsky on the death of his younger brother Yehuda - an unmistakeably brilliant materials science student, active Republican college radio pundit and Jewish cultural leader - to what appeared to be suicide. He found it annoying that his religious family at the time were consoling one another by stating he was "in a better place." I mentioned that at least on some interpretations of physics a wide array of possibilities were realized and that Yehuda would still be alive in many of them. Eliezer replied that although that might provide some consolation in the abstract it still doesn't change the lived experience of continuing through life without his brother.

Any overpopulation issues could be worked around through policies limiting the number of clones via something like a carbon tax differentiated by levels of pollution in energy extraction (not the apparently ineffective cap and trade approach), or analoguously the waste or benefit derived from income sources (e.g. gambling and prostitution versus software development or college instruction). Preferably, the policies would be ones that did not disincentivize reviving deceased people but placed productivity demands (via rational and limited taxation, for example) on the number of coexisting clones one could produce of oneself (in the case of geniuses or popular people, others might foot the bill). Drawing again on the analogy of renewable energy incentives, we might even pay people for the excess productivity of their clone groups beyond given thresholds.

In short, I see advanced cloning as offering a potential bridge between rational interests for the self, society, and communities of affiliation. If we manage to avoid destroying ourselves first, I think such cloning will become an integral part of the future of humanity, even as we also pursue computer uploading, computer-brain interfaces and other technological advancements that will continue to transform the nature of human beings.

Cloning and Self-Enhancement in Relation to Life Extension

2009-09-03T17:17:00.000-07:00

I used to be opposed to the idea of cloning oneself as a means of life extension for three reasons: 1) early cloning work resulted in sickly animals, 2) a newborn clone will have different life experiences that shape its biology and mind, and 3) I held a naive materialist view of the locus of a subject of experience and action or self-same mind.

I have moved beyond my third objection to view information processed in a manner that is relevantly the same to be an identical mind. Now, if cloning techniques were better, say, even allowing healthy identical copies of adults to be produced (perhaps with advanced nanotech and supercomputing) I would consider that fully adequate for life extension. Moreover, it easily could encourage venturesome risk-taking rather than discourage it among people who find appealing the incentive of a long and youthful lifespan.

At some point, I suspect that such approaches to life extension will be adopted in part because it offers the best of both investment strategies: high risk and novelty seeking / high reward potential and long duration of learning and expertise cultivation through risk aversion / likelier reward potential even if comparative returns are modest. Additionally, more of the same person could be applied to a given problem or challenge (e.g. several clones of the same nobel prize winning physicist could compete and collaborate with one another and other as well as clones of other notable or highly capable physicists to save the planet from the latest existential risk).

Notice I mentioned physicists. On a morning news show with a section on radical life extension I saw an interviewer ask Aubrey de Grey if it really was worth living to watch a million episodes of reality television (to which Aubrey replied something like he wouldn't want to watch a million microseconds of reality television but you can't do anything when dead). Although I see nothing wrong with enjoying reality television we should hope to achieve a bit more with our resources; for example, reaching the stars to seed the galaxy with life and averting extinction in the near future.

In developed nations the tested intelligence of the general population has risen slowly based on a more cognitively demanding environment. At the upper end of the spectrum there also are social filters that encourage some traits to an eccentric extent (e.g. the higher rates of Aspergers Syndrome in Silicon Valley). However, the very word "eugenics" is tainted with the murderous and sadistic regime of the Nazis and any explicit program of genetic enhancement through selective breeding might risk promoting sociopathic and psychopathic tendencies along with intelligence.

One genetic enhancement strategy that doesn't risk oppressive social regimes would be voluntary self-enhancement through the use of early childhood education, nootropic drugs and eventually more dramatically effective forms of neural enhancement and nanorobotically achieved genetic engineering within the self-same person. Ultimately, uploading onto another computational format could enable much more radical enhancement. Let's hope that the leaders, legislators and judges of today and tomorrow have the wisdom and foresight to provide both access to such technology (lest the users become outlaws) and regulation for safety (lest unforeseen glitches in cognitive tech seriously harm the users or those who they interact with while under the influence).

Nano is the path to radical life extension

2009-08-31T07:09:00.000-07:00

Coincidentally, nanotechnology also is the path to radical life span extension.

http://www.xenophilia.org/nano_life_extension.html

http://www.lef.org/magazine/mag2009/jan2009_Nanotechnology-Radically-Extended-Life-Span_01.htm

Nano is the path to clean energy

2009-08-29T16:06:00.001-07:00

The most crucial developments leading the way to clean energy will be technological rather than political, though some political will can help a great deal. The main reason: the economics, which hold sway both for governments that want more power and political groups that want smaller governments.

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2007/02/nanotechnology-and-the-future-of-renewable-energy-47553

Initial Synthesis of Ideas

2009-08-27T18:36:00.000-07:00

I should start this blog by articulating what I believe to be the most pressing issues for myself and people relevantly like me (e.g. non-AGI experts) to follow and work on.

I am working to focus more on life extension issues and less on partisan politics. However, the politics of the external environment can matter a great deal to one’s prospects for extending biological lifespan and internal experience, as well as the lifespans of those one knows and cares for in the world. I will try to balance surveys of the environment with projections for biological life extension. The emergence of superintelligent artificial general intelligence might considerably alter the relevant dynamics but I will focus on more knowable futures including those in which superintelligent AGI takes a very cautious, hands-off initial approach to influencing the world.

Ultimately, I think that the primary focus in life extension should be on survivability for humans (in some form) and intelligent, sentient beings, including AGI. Although there are important considerations regarding the meaning and nature of life and death I believe that life extension and health maintenance – in biological as well as robustly “uploaded” formats – is the most important agenda following overall survival of intelligent beings and civilization, characterized by Nick Bostrom as “existential risks” or risks of extinction as well as large scale disasters. Both callous abstraction from the suffering of particular individuals and blind or unscrupulous protection of people closest to ones’ own heart (perhaps including even oneself in some cases) seem to be extremes to avoid in contemplating and striving to reduce existential risks.

Jamais Cascio is an excellent source for conceptual frameworks regarding civilization survival and sustainable culture. Although current proposals involve many risky unknowns I agree with Cascio that at this point it seems that even drastic reductions of greenhouse gas emissions will not prevent significant climate change and “geoengineering” projects will be needed to help slow and control the process. Although I am intrigued by newer, less brittle economic models discussed by Cascio, I’m inclined to think the next decade will be shaped most by the familiar combination of party Liberalism and Corporatism, and the latter force will only adopt green tech as it becomes cost competitive with older technology. I think “bright green” market-oriented, consumer-driven technology will need to be the basis for much progress though private initiatives and public incentives will be needed to accelerate the process.

Cascio may be right that eventually, if we manage to avoid dystopian nightmares, we may realize “resilience economics” leading to islands of “just-in-time socialism” and eventually even a “basic income guarantee” society as robots take over most jobs. Between now and then, it would seem well advised to make oneself as independently valuable as possible, and there is hardly a better industry for that than life extension as it provides an appealing benefit to consumers as well as to society at large (given that members can work longer at higher capacity).
A less impersonal life extension agenda is striving to realize a “longevity escape velocity” a process in which one lives long enough to benefit from the technological advances that enable escaping death from what currently are considered “natural causes.”

Here is part of an E-mail I received from Micheal Rae in response to an inquiry concerning the progress of biogerontology and the role of nanotechnology in achieving radically longer lives:

" Certainly, it's likely that in the short term, we'll be using some of what we might call "conventional" nanotech as part of tissue engineering, in bioMEMs, immunoisolated tissue/organ constructs, etc. However, these certainly won't be *indispensible* or even central elements of the *immediate* goal of "longevity escape velocity" (LEV). Rather, more advanced, 'blue sky' "Drexlerian" nano (hard-core molecular manufacturing devices/nanobots), will become necessary at some time in the future, as part of that ultimate, comprehensive panel of rejuvenation treatments (whereas the first generation will be entirely composed of foreseeable biotechnology). For instance, one can see that a very strong ("Drexlerian") form of nanotechnology, which could maintain a mutliply-redundant copy of the genome, compare it to the genes in a given cell, and directly repair errors (having thus the crucial ability to look in on a given cell's genome from without, instead of being limited to comparing one DNA strand to the other as our endogenous repair mechanims are), might be expected to be a powerful and effective approach.

More on Dr. de Grey's speculation on the role of molecular manufacturing in future age-reversing biotech here:

http://ieet.org/index.php/IEET/more/108
http://www.foresight.org/challenges/health002.html

-Michael”

I intend to start learning more about Dr. Grey’s work and how I can support it.